About PLPredictor

What is PLPredictor?

PLPredictor is a small, independent tool that generates statistical estimates for Premier League scorelines. It’s designed to be fun, informative, and a useful “second opinion” when you’re looking at fixtures.

How does it work?

The model is intentionally simple and transparent. It combines a few ingredients to produce a probability “grid” of likely scorelines (0–0, 1–0, 2–1, etc.).

• Time-weighted form: more recent matches matter more than older ones.
• League position: the table helps anchor team strength in a straightforward way.
• Poisson-style scoreline model: turns expected goals into likely scorelines and probabilities.
• Parameters you can tweak:
  • Form half-life controls how quickly older matches “fade” in importance.
  • Max goals grid controls how far the scoreline grid extends (e.g. up to 8–8).

Over time, I may refine the weighting and presentation, but the aim will stay the same: keep it fast, readable and honest.

Data source

Match and table data are provided via football-data.org. To reduce rate limits, some pages cache results briefly in your browser.

About me

I’m Tony Brassell. I build little projects like this for the fun of it, and I’m also an author. If you’d like to see my books (crime drama, Guernsey guides and more), you can find them here: tonybrassell.co.uk/books.html.

Feedback is welcome — this site will likely evolve over time.